Published-Accuracy Risk Signals for Algo Traders & Quant Developers
Not a direction call - a risk read you can verify. Know when tail risk, regime shifts, and volatility expansion are building, with published accuracy across 30+ assets via the Four Horsemen suite.
{ "tail_risk_conf": 0.95, // 95% chance of an outlier-sized move "high_vol_conf": 0.95, // already-elevated vol regime "future_vol": 0.06, // ~6% expected range, next 3-5 candles "msg": "Big move, already-wide conditions..." }
* Full 50+ asset data catalog on Pro & AI plans - 30+ of these have published model accuracy (Four Horsemen & Core Alpha), shown below
43,500+ live API requests served to date - we're early, and that number is real, not rounded up.
Published Accuracy, Not Guesswork
These are risk and volatility forecasting numbers, not price-direction accuracy - none of the Four Horsemen call up or down. Figures below are the single best-performing model per signal for BTC-USD, pulled directly from our open machineLearning-models methodology repo.
Four Horsemen accuracy - BTC-USD, daily, best model per signal
Full methodology →Tail Risk's positive class is roughly the top 10% of bars by definition, so raw accuracy alone understates how it compares to a naive baseline - full precision/recall context lives on the methodology page, not hidden, just not crammed into a homepage ring.
Core Alpha: Future Volatility Regressor - BTC-USD, hourly, XGBRegressor
Predicts magnitude, not price direction
This model forecasts how much the next bar is likely to move (volatility), not which way price goes. None of the Four Horsemen or Core Alpha models predict price direction - they flag risk and volatility regime, not up/down. Pair this with your own directional thesis or entry signal before sizing a trade.
Avg prediction error (RMSE) on BTC-USD hourly: ~0.0020, roughly 0.2 percentage points of volatility.
A Plan for Every Builder.
No credit card required to start.
Free
Explore the core API and build proof-of-concepts.
- ✓ 100 Requests per Day
- ✓ Core data + All Indicators
- ✓ Bitcoin & Ethereum Only
- ✓ Daily & Hourly timeframes
- ✓ Up to 1,000 Candles per Request
Pro
Full data, priority access, and broader market coverage. Ideal for live trading bots and strategy testers.
The full risk & volatility suite, priced like a side project - not an enterprise data contract.
- ✓ 10,000 Requests per Day
- ✓ Broad Market Coverage (Top 50 coins, more coming soon)
- ✓ Daily & Hourly Timeframes
- ✓ Low Latency
- ✓ Real-time WebSocket Feed - live candles & high-confidence alerts
- ✓ Full Historical OHLCV Data
- ✓ Market & Sector performance deltas
- ✓ Four Horsemen risk suite - Tail Risk, Regime State, Regime Change & Regime Emergence
- ✓ Core Alpha volatility models - Future Volatility & Expansion Probability
AI (High-Volume)
High-volume access for AI training, SaaS products, and resellers.
- ✓ Unlimited Requests
- ✓ All Pro Features Included
- ✓ Connect LLMs to Crypto
| Feature | Free | Pro | AI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset coverage | BTC & ETH only | Top 50 coins | Top 50 coins |
| Requests / day | 100 | 10,000 | Unlimited |
| Historical depth | Up to 1,000 candles | Full history | Full history |
| Four Horsemen risk suite | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Market & sector deltas | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Real-time WebSocket feed | ✗ | ✓ | ✓ |
Got a Question? DM on Twitter
Data Engineered for Traders, Quants, and AI Builders
Clean, Normalized OHLCV
Stop wrestling with messy data feeds. Get consistent historical ranges and reliable OHLCV data instantly.
20+ Enriched Indicators
Dozens of indicators (MACD, RSI, Stochastics, etc.) and multiple moving averages already applied for quant developers.
Risk & Volatility Forecasting, Not Guesswork
The Four Horsemen suite - Tail Risk, Regime State, Regime Change, Regime Emergence - plus the Core Alpha volatility models, measures when risk is building, with published accuracy across 30+ assets. No direction calls: just the data to size, hedge, and time your own thesis.
Built for Builders
For Algo Traders & Quant Developers
Size positions and set smarter stops using independently measured risk & volatility forecasts - not a black-box score, and not a direction call. Spend your time on strategy, not cleaning CSVs.
Learn more →For AI/ML Teams & SaaS Integrators
Feed perfectly clean financial time-series directly into training pipelines. Add published risk & volatility intelligence to your product with a single, reliable API call.
Learn more →Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Free plan include, and how do I unlock more coins?
The Free plan covers Bitcoin and Ethereum only, with 100 requests per day, core OHLCV data, and all 20+ indicators. Upgrading to Pro ($5/mo) unlocks the top 50 coins, 10,000 requests/day, full historical data, and the Four Horsemen risk & volatility suite.
What are the rate limits, and what happens if I hit the cap?
Free is 100 requests/day, Pro is 10,000/day, and AI is unlimited. If you hit your daily cap on Free or Pro, further requests return a 429 error until the counter resets at 00:00 UTC - there are no surprise overage charges.
Can I cancel or change plans anytime?
Yes. Pro and AI subscriptions are managed through the Stripe billing portal, accessible from your dashboard, where you can cancel or change plans at any time - no support ticket required.
Do you offer refunds?
There's no blanket refund policy published yet - this is a small, solo-run project. If something's wrong with a charge, DM on X and it gets sorted out directly, case by case.
Who builds this, and is it actively maintained?
DefiTheOdds is built and maintained by a single developer, Eoin Crosbie, as an actively-worked passion project. Accuracy numbers, docs, and features ship on an ongoing basis - see the About page and blog for the full story.
Is this a buy/sell signal service?
No. None of the models predict price direction - they forecast risk and volatility regime (tail risk, regime shifts, volatility expansion). The read is meant to pair with your own directional thesis or entry signal, not replace it.
Ready to Defi The Odds?
Start building your next strategy on data you can verify. Free to register.
View API Docs & Examples
Real Feedback, Real Builders
We're early - this is what's actually been said and built, not cherry-picked marketing copy.
Built solo by Eoin Crosbie as a passion project alongside a full-time job - read why →
“I’ve been really impressed with DefiTheOdds. It’s a genuinely useful tool for anyone building in crypto, trading, or quantitative research.”
“A few things that stand out are the simple API structure, the focus on algo traders and AI builders, and additional features like market regime detection and sector performance insights. The free tier is also great for testing and getting started quickly.”
Tobi used Claude Opus to build an open-source OpenClaw skill that turns natural-language questions like “Give me your BTC market prediction” into full regime, volatility, and expansion-probability reports pulled straight from our API - complete with install docs and a standalone CLI script.
Not our project, not sponsored - just someone who wired it up and shipped it.