Eoin Crosbie

Why I built this

I launched DefiTheOdds on 31st December 2025, after more than a year of tinkering and building around the idea. It's a solo project I work on alongside a full-time job - there's no team, no office, no investors behind it. Just me, training ML models in my spare time because I find the problem genuinely interesting.

The intent has always been simple: help traders make better decisions. I do that by training hundreds of ML models across different coins to predict risk and volatility behaviour in upcoming candles - not by trying to call price direction, which I think is a much harder and less honest problem to claim you've solved.

DefiTheOdds is meant to be an additional intelligence layer for trade decision-making, not a black box and not a signal service. For some traders that means filtering out low-probability setups; for others it's identifying stronger entries or reducing exposure before volatility and tail-risk events show up. One of my favourite parts of building this is testing the data against real strategies and watching performance improve when better information gets added to the decision-making process.

I publish accuracy numbers in the open (see the methodology page) because I'd rather be measured honestly than market a black-box score. I'm still building this out - new models, better documentation, and feedback from actual users genuinely shapes what gets built next.

Read the longer version of this story on the blog.